UK & World News
- 27 January 2013, 14:45
Tories Handed EU Referendum Polls Boost
David Cameron's pledge to hold a referendum on EU membership if the Conservatives win the next General Election appears to have given the party a boost in the polls.
A survey conducted in the wake of the Prime Minister's speech on Wednesday showed the Tories had enjoyed a five-point jump from last month, mostly at the expense of the eurosceptics of UKIP.
The poll, by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent on Sunday, put the Tories on 33%, with Labour stood still at 39% and the Liberal Democrats up two at 11%.
UKIP, which has registered significant advances in recent months, fell back four points to 10%.
Mr Cameron has insisted he wants to stay in the EU but said he would aim to renegotiate the relationship before offering voters the choice whether the UK should stay in under the new terms or leave.
However, despite the resurgence in the latest polls, many voters backed Labour and Lib Dem warnings that Mr Cameron's position would cause "years of uncertainty which will be bad for the British economy" by 43% to 30%.
The majority also now believe that leaving the EU would in itself be bad for the economy in terms of lost jobs and trade - by 38% to 36%, a turnaround from November when 40% disagreed and 36% agreed.
There was also a significant shift in the numbers saying the UK should quit Brussels regardless of whether powers could be returned, voters disagreeing by 43% to 33% - the exact opposite of the previous poll.
Other polls also showed a post-speech Tory bounce.
One by Survation for the Mail on Sunday put the Tories up two at 31%, Labour stable at 38%, UKIP down two to 14% and the Lib Dems down one at 10%.
Exactly half of those polled said they favoured a UK exit, but of those more (43%) said they would consider switching to the "yes" camp if significant powers were returned than wouldn't (36%).
An Angus Reid Public Opinion for the Sunday Express showed a three-point rise for the Conservatives to 30% with Labour dipping three to 39%.
The success of Mr Cameron's EU speech , however, has not stopped speculation within the party about his possible successor should he fail to secure a majority at the next election.
Several Sunday newspapers reported that MPs had been approached about whether they would consider supporting Adam Afriyie, an IT millionaire who became the Tories' first black MP in 2005.
The latest polls were released as Labour leader Ed Miliband - who has said the party is not in favour of the referendum promised by the Prime Minister - faced renewed calls from within his own party for an immediate in/out referendum.
Former Europe minister Keith Vaz, a supporter of EU membership, said it was "time to settle the question of Britain's membership in the EU once and for all".
"I support a referendum because, like David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, I believe the future of our country is in Europe. I am supportive, but pragmatic about the European project," he wrote in the Sunday Mirror.
"I accept British people rightly feel the EU is not delivering on its promises. Reform is necessary. We need better, stronger and earlier scrutiny by Parliament of EU measures."
UKIP leader Nigel Farage told the Sunday Express his party would now be "going for the Labour Party's jugular" over its failure to back the referendum.
"Here was an open goal for the Labour Party to demand that referendum now. They could have called his bluff. Ed Miliband could have pressed the Prime Minister to give voters a say on Europe without ifs and buts. Yet they didn't," he wrote.
Update:
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what do you think?
d and d Phillips
Deceit
shaun spencer
Its ukip thats forced the torys to do this.not what torys would have done otherwise.whens labour going to follow suit.
pjbeckett
83% will vote for the Lib/Lab/Cons !!! the revolution is a long way off it seems.
TIM x
Do not be fooled by this. Hitler promised he would not invade Poland in 1939. His promises meant nothing just as the so called repatriation of powers from the EU will mean NOTHING. The only way is OUT. We dare not be fooled by Brussels lies.
shaun spencer
I dont think you can compare hitlers promises to anything currently going on in europe.id give the history channels a bit of a break if i were you.
TIM x
Shaun the blueprint for the eu was drawn up originally by the Na zis plan b if they were defeated by the allies. I think the man's name was Walter funke. He was Germanys finance minister and president of the deutsche bank in the war. He died in 1960 and was convicted of war crimes at Nuremburg. The document is called European economic community and was a plan to unite Europe into one state by subversion and treason. Its in German and in the public domain. I will find you the world catalogue number later. Why should we think that any promise won by Cameron is any better than that of Hitler?
Viv hanshall
Walter Funke - German Welterwight boxer. Walter Funke - Achillea 'Walter Funke'. Superb Achillea with orange red flower heads over grey green foliage Walter Funke - regional climbing champion. Walter Funke - Born in Missouri, USA on 1902 to Max Funke and Amanda Damm. Walter married Ruth Caroline Elliott and had 3 children. As Shuan says - switch off the History Channel.
mick_salt
It's Walther F-u-n-k, Tim. Can you tell me where you found the bit about his "plan to unite Europe into one state by subversion and treason". I've searched but can't find it. I'm interested in looking at it - I'm not sure that my schoolboy German will be up to the task of translating it though.
mick_salt
OK, I've found it. It's hardly "uniting Europe by treason and subversion" though. He foresaw the need for an economically united Europe - simply because it made sense. The US was also proposing a united europe at the same time in the Marshall Plan - simply because it made sense.
shirley sutton
He'll move the goal posts if he's re-elected he's done nothing he said he would so far country in a ruddy mess and its getting worse
john byrne
Promises and lies, blue sheep have very short memories it seems.
Glynne Powell
This comment has been removed for violations of our Terms and Conditions.
davenlesley
John. The blue sheep have short memories about Europe. The red sheep have short memories where economics are concerned
john byrne
I never realised that Labour were responsible for 90% of the world economy.
davenlesley
John. They weren't only the economy of the UK and a right mess they made of it. And before you go down the it was global problems road don't forget Brown claimed all the credit for the things that went well but the minute things went pear shaped it was nothing to do with him
john byrne
Just as Osborne has blamed, labour, the weather, the jubilee and the olympics plus the world economy. Cameron has claimed the debt is falling, while statistics prove it getting higher. That's the nature of political parties, they rely on short memories, fear and sheep mentality.
davenlesley
John. I'd go along with you there. Don't you just get sick of hearing the same old twaddle. It wasn't our fault it was what we inherirted from the last lot and its all their fault. We have got all this to come to again in about Aug 2015 when nothing whatsoever has changed in the time since the election
mick_salt
"Cameron has claimed the debt is falling, while statistics prove it getting higher." This isn't true. The Coalition (note NOT Cameron) has claimed that the DEFICIT is falling and it is. Debt and deficit are two different things. The deficit was approx £160 billion when the Coialition took office and it is now approx £125 billion. It takes a long time to reduce an annual deficit of £160 billion, so, of course the accumulated debt will continue to grow for some years.
davenlesley
Millibland has faced renewed calls from within his own party for an immediate in/out referendum. Strange that since we are constantly told that only the Tories are divided about Europe. It is time we reailsed that this euro scepticism cuts right across the political spectrum and will continue to split the nation until the issue is resolved once and for all by giving us all a vote
Gordon Wright
Well said Dave but stand by for incoming from "you know who"............
mick_salt
I don't think there's much euro scepticism amongst the Libdems, Dave. As Gordon knows, I'm largely against a referendum because I don't think an issue of such complexity and importance should be decided by people who are non experts. However, I can see that one good aspect of a referendum is that it will oblige the pro Europeans to publicise and demonstrate the many advantages of being a member. Hitherto, they've been their own worst enemies by not educating the electorate and letting the tabloids fill the void with their usual negative phobias.
davenlesley
Mick. Nothing wrong with being against a referendum, it is your view. I think you are correct as far as the Lib/Dem MP's are concerned but out in the country who knows. This issue will run and run until someone somewhere grasps the nettle and puts the arguments to the voters in clear and simple terms. The present uncertainty is the worst of both worlds
Gordon Wright
Hello Mick, Just read your post and apart from our acknowledged difference of opinion on a referendum, I would agree with what you say. Your post is, I think, very measured and sensible. Of course, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion and I would welcome someone demonstrating the advantages of EU membership instead of some of the spurious claims that have been made. (not by you Mick, I hasten to add). As Dave says, there is nothing wrong in you (or anyone else) being against a referendum. I also believe however, he is correct in saying the issue will run and run until we do have one............ P.S. when I spoke of "incoming from you know who", I wasn't referring to you Mick, I believe Dave knows who I mean !!........
mick_salt
Hi Gordon, There's very limited space on Orange to try to explain the tangible and intangible benefits of EU membership. There is, however, a cross party group of MPs that are now making an effort to do this. You can see their early attempts at <a href="http://www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=15296" rel='nofollow'>www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=15296</a> No doubt, some of it is little over-egged, unlike the negative reports in the tabloid press and elsewhere :-), but much of it is indisputable (e.g. the way the EU has driven down telecommunications costs and encouraged inward investment in to the UK). Worth a read.
Phil A
There are still some idiots around then.
Ray Stoner
Since we only joined the common market, how is it we are are a member of the eu
mick_salt
Because the Maarstricht Treaty changed it from the EEC to the EC and then the Lisbon Treaty changed it to the EU. Nothing sinister about it.
Phil A
Because our MPs haven't got the backbone to say 'N0' that's why.
mick_salt
or because all the participating countries agreed with the proposed reforms. Certainly another review is long overdue and, while it would be nice if we could get our way, we have to remember that other countries have their agenda too.
Russell6730
Has anyone questioned the authencity of these surveys and polls? especially over 3 days since the PMs speech? Just what cross section of people and areas are surveyed? these basic questions are rarely answered. I dont believe there are so many gullable people who would change allegiance to one of the biggest liars and backtrackers in political history on the basis of such a vague promise to come in effect up tp 5 years.He's only trying to halt a mass desertion to UKIP.as for Lab.who have closer ties to the EU its clear they will never hold a referendum Blair and Browns legacy lives on.Both parties today are controlled by a faceless elite who rule far from westminster even far from Britain. So whoever you vote for you get the same.
Name witheld
This comment has been removed for violations of our Terms and Conditions.
field_pete
Well said bryan, on top of the current immigration disaster we'll have Romania and Bulgaria next year. I posted once before that the referendum should be done this May, in 4 years we'll be in a far worse state, as if things aren't bad enough.
mick_salt
Can you explain, field pete, what "the current immigration disaster" is? We have one of the lowest immigration rates in Europe. If you discount places like Andora, Switzerland has by far the highest immigration rate in Europe (more than double ours) and Switzerland isn't in the EU, which suggests strongly to me that our immigration rate probably wouldn't be any lower if we weren't in the EU. Additionally, since my dentist and my wife's hospital registrar both come from Eastern Europe, it might well be a bit of a disaster if we send all the EU immigrants back, particularly since the 1.6 million Brits living in Europe would then have to come home. As a point of interest 0.6% of EU immigrants to the UK claim benefits.
Viv hanshall
Both France and Germany have higher immigrant populations than the UK. A million Romanians have moved to Italy in the past five years. More are likely to do so because of family connections and linguistic familiarity. British people live, work and retire in Europe. They use local resources. Is there a particular issue with Bulgarians and Romanians that you have that you would like to share with us?
field_pete
Mick, If you are that blind that you can't see it for yourself then I'm not going to explain it to you again. I couldn't care less how our situation compares to others, I am only interested in my country and immigration, both legal and illegal has been a disaster for the UK.
peter brady
Field Pete - please explain to me how immigration has been a 'disaster' for the UK And would you agree that UK residents should not have the right to live or work in other countries?
field_pete
Easy, here in London, immigrants, India 262,247,Poland 158,300,Rep of Ireland 129,300,Nigeria 114,718,Pakistan 112,457,Bangladesh 109,948,Jamaica 87,467,Sri Lanka 84,542,France 66,654,South Africa 66,654,Kenya 66,311,Somalia 65,333,USA 63,920,Italy 62,050,Ghana 62,896,Turkey 59,596,Germany 55,476,Australia 53,959,Romania 44,848,Phillipenes 44,199, Portugal 41,041, Lithuania 39,817,China 39,452,Iran 37,339,Spain 35,880,Hong Kong 26,435,Zimbabwe 21,039 plus all those who have been given a passport and now consider themselves British, 2nd and third generation immigrants and around half a million illegals. That is a diaster, and they're not all doctors.
peter brady
But WHY is it a 'disaster'? Don't just say it is a 'disaster' explain why.
mick_salt
You still haven't explained why it's a disaster f-p. Of course, they're not all doctors, but are you saying that the rest are criminals, lay abouts and benefit scroungers? In any case the subject is the EU and less than half of your list are from the EU? It might be useful to compare this to the number of immigrants in other European capitals (e.g. Paris). As for being a "flippant tory", Brian, a) it's not a very strong debating point and b) I'm not a tory, flippant or otherwise. I shall consult my lawyer.
field_pete
That's why I didn't bother explaining it to them Bryan. The old saying goes " there's none so blind as those who will not see".
mick_salt
Fortunately, this non tory is not so thick that he can't spot a crude attempt to avoid a question tio which you obviously don't have an answer. Here's some figures for you to ponder: Southampton 23 pts Newcastle U 21 pts Aston Villa 21 pts It's a disaster! Well, yes, it is for Newcastle and Aston Villa, but quite good for Southampton considering where they were a while ago. You see, these things need explaining. Giving a list of figures on its own and saying it's a disaster is totally and utterly meaningless.
mick_salt
:-) That's really rich from someone who calls you a tory even when you've toldhim that you're not and who misses apostrophes out of "cant", "its" and "dont". Still, I suppose it's a way of avoiding answering the question that you can't or don't want to answer.
davenlesley
CHILDREN. Lets not allow what was a serious discussion degenerate into childish name calling
mick_salt
Aw, come on Dave, I think I'm allowed a little dig after the "thick tory" slur.
Viv hanshall
The fact of the matter is that the UK will not leave the EU. The arguments in favour of membership will prevail and the UKIP balloon will deflate just as that of the BNP and the NF did. The three main parties want to remain part of the EU as they are well aware that it is in Britain's interest to remain so.
davenlesley
Viv. If they are so sure let them state the arguments for & against, have the vote and lance this boil once and for all. At present they are just patronising the electorate as usual and saying we know best
peter brady
In the short term - at least - Cameron's gamble seems to be working. His party has a little bounce, UKIP falters (which is inevitable anyway) and people are beginning to move towards a more pro membership attitude. Once the arguments are fully made for membership then the outcome will be inevitable. The UK will stay in the EU. The pro membership coalition of business, The City and senior politicians need to counter the negative tabloid mistruths.
davenlesley
Peter. You may very well be right. I only wish they would put the arguments for and against and then give us a say, I get tired of being told how wonderful for us the EU is but then not being trusted to make a judgement in case they get an answer they don't want
happymike CHESTER
Pure diversion from our real problems ,unemployment ,inflation and corrupt politicians .
Name witheld
This comment has been removed for violations of our Terms and Conditions.
lance
This comment has been removed for violations of our Terms and Conditions.
Glynne Powell
For anyone who needs reminding - here is the video which proves Cameron has a history of offering one then suddenly changing his mind after he's got what he wants (another election win) - don't take my word for it - see for yourself.. <a href="http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151165075902134" rel='nofollow'>http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151165075902134</a>
gengisken1227
2:06am on 27/1/2013
Give it week, maybe two when people realise Dave has offered nothing of sustance except another promise. Anyone remember what happened to his last promise for a EU referendum? No!! Thats because his get-out clause meant he never needed to follow through - just as he never intends to hold this one.
Glynne Powell
3:54pm on 29/1/2013
I was about to say the same thing as you - and for anyone who needs reminding - here is the video to prove it <a href="http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151165075902134" rel='nofollow'>http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151165075902134</a>