UK Economy: Workers Face A 'Hard Year Of Slog'
A number of reports are warning of a tough 2013 in the jobs market, with one study predicting it will be a "hard year of slog" for even those in work.
Dr John Philpott, director of The Jobs Economist, believes workers can expect longer hours, a continued squeeze on pay and fewer jobs being created.
His analysis suggests job insecurity will remain high, with workers having to maintain a "grin and bear it" attitude.
The study forecasts that the trend in falling unemployment will come to an end with the jobless total increasing by 120,000 to 2.63 million in 2013 because growth in the workforce will exceed the number of jobs being created.
However, youth unemployment would fall below 900,000, while long-term unemployment will remain broadly the same.
The outlook also forecasts that pay deals would continue to be affected by unemployment, with increases lagging behind inflation, leading to wage cuts for workers in real terms.
He said: "Our jobs outlook for 2013 is relatively optimistic in that we expect only a modest rise in unemployment. However, the fact that this can be considered good news merely underlines the harsh reality of current economic austerity.
"GDP may grow somewhat faster but 2013 will be another year of hard slog, with longer hours for those lucky enough to have jobs and a further squeeze on living standards for workers and the jobless alike."
But a separate study painted a slightly better picture for the longer term.
A report for the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said that continued growth in employment was likely in 2013, with the number of people in work potentially reaching a historic milestone of 30 million before the next general election in 2015.
Latest figures showed there were 29.6 million people in employment in the quarter to October, an increase of almost half a million on a year earlier.
However, the study also warned that excess capacity had built up in some firms as employers held on to skilled and talented staff, which could lead to weaker employment growth even if the economy picks up.
Mark Beatson, chief economist at the CIPD, said: "The jobs enigma, of strong growth in private sector employment in the absence of sustained economic growth, has been one of the most mystifying economic features of 2012, and if 2012 proved an enigma, the labour market appears equally difficult to pin down for 2013.
"Although the flexibility of the UK labour market is an important factor, the popular focus on under-employment as a major factor in explaining rising overall employment seems overplayed.
"While there are undoubtedly significant numbers of people working fewer hours than they would like, and this is an issue that merits further investigation and consideration by policy makers and employers alike, the numbers have not increased significantly this year, making it a poor explanation on its own for the 2012 jobs enigma.
"On balance, there are likely to be further increases in employment. Rising employment alongside muted growth indicates that employers have significant reserves of skilled labour capacity on which to call to support growth."
what do you think?
Allow me to beg your indulgence but there is no insentive to work hard if your income is low and out going alot more then what's the point seems the easy way out is pop a few kids out live rent free ans the life of Riley
Seems the more you do and the harder you work the more you are penalised
NIck My wife a teacher recently asked 2 twelve year old why they did not work hard at School and gain qualifications The answer - they were going to be couch potatoes like their parent, have children and live of benefits, they did not need qualifications if this attitude is now ingrained into a section of society, there is little hope for the future Both parties need to take responsibility and this has not happened over night
If kids are seeing there lazy parents living a good life through doing nothing of corset they will follow suit kids are dragged up these days and not brought up 20years ago you payed your own way no one payed your rent and give handouts its to easy these days
Michael, tell your wife to advise these brilliant, observant, clever, smart mouthed 12 year olds that they are missing a great opportunity if they dont become Tory politicians.
These are merely forecasts by smart RS economists who look a various indicators and trends to come up with their guesswork. Meanwhile in the real world those at the sharp end of the countries problems know how tough it is and don't need forecasts to tell them that we are in for another year of economic hardship. What concerns me most is that we seem to have little hope of improvement in the coming year
WU. Small world we live in sunshine. Now tell me your views on that magnificent arch we have in the market place, and keep it clean
WU. Apparently it is going to cost almost half of the original building cost just to pull it down
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Following reports by economists such as Dr Philpott, then is it not amazing that Govt dept. Sec. of State Mark Hoban, Job Centre Plus, with the assistance of Atos, are expensively charged with forcing people who are physically disabled or seriously ill into a work market that doesn't exist, only to satisfy a target & create excess. Particularly when the target no longer represents the workforce needs of the changing UK . Already too many people are working part time and need more hours or another job to to achieve a livable wage. Understandable that employers need an excess of labor to be standing by waiting in the wings should they be needed but to fill this role with Ill and disabled when over 900,000 unemployed youth are waiting for work training then the focus by those depts is incorrect.
The number of long term sicK has double in the last 10 -15 years Why? Possibly because benefit are higher ? I do not believe twice as many people are ill
This country's just full of freeloaders now
1. The EU contribution 2. Import of manufactured goods 3. Immigration of people not needed. 4. Overgenerous social benefits 5. Bloated civil service And as long as we are ruled by the Lib/Lab/Cons no chance of a change.
There are many worker`s (proper one`s) who have had 30 years of hard slog with low wages and poor working conditions .Now seeing their small saving`s and pensions scammed away by city Banksters .
My pension was scammed away by gordon brown.
T was it not Gordan under Blair who taxed pensions after encouraging all responsible people to take a pension out
Totally agree T Bulgin. McBroon and his cronies stole money from my pension too.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) says employment should grow to a record high by 2015. Its study says the number of people employed should grow throughout 2013 to reach 30 million two years later. Looking good for the Tories at the next election. ;-)
should that not be spelt SIPID - A group of theorist running courses and spouting knowledge proberbly at the tax payers expense that give little value and have never done a real job
I have worked for the last 37 years and every single one of them has been a hard slog ! So whats new ?
Me too, and add another 10 on to that !
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With a UK GDP of $28,000 per Capita in 2012 whats the problem seems things arnt to bad must just could be some people are skimming off a bit too much ! How about dropping VAT back to 15% until things improve ?.